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Recent Portfolio Theory - Advice in a Multifactor World Page
3
John H. Cochrane, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Click
here to link to a pdf file of the research paper
Adding a third factor
provides a new mean-variance frontier, which appears in Figure 2
as a three-dimensional cone. Illustration B shows the mean frontier
that is formed with the inclusion of a risk-free investment, like
a government bond or a money market fund. In this case, the principal
is the same as the two-factor model, except that portfolios that
find their way into the efficient frontier can now be achieved with
combinations of three types of funds: equities, bonds or money market
funds, and a portfolio that is adjusted for the investor's chosen
third factor.

Federal
Reserve Bank of Chicago
Look at apparent
free lunches with healthy skeptism
Never forget that for
every investor who is buying a stock or asset class for its risk
premium, there is another investor who is avoiding it because he
feels that the risk is too high. This is an issue that is really
on the front edge of the index investing debate. Current data tends
to indicate that some asset classes, such as small cap. and value
stocks carry a risk premium, meaning investors can expect higher
returns from these asset classes. Some economists (such as Fama
and French) believe that the premiums of certain asset classes are
caused by higher risk. Others believe that this imbalance in pricing
is caused by the irrational behavior of investors, who flock to
equities that are in favor, and shy away from those that aren't.
Cochrane sees economists as being about evenly divided between the
two camps.
Understanding the reason
for the market's behavior is critical to making the best investment
decisions. If the risk is real, then you can invest in these equities
- but with the understanding that you are gaining higher returns
at the expense of additional risk. If the higher returns are indicative
of irrational investor behavior, you would be a fool not to invest
in the underbelly of a market inefficiency that is certain to revert
back to the mean. However, if the irrational behavior is ingrained
into the human psyche like, say flying in airplanes, it is for all
intents and purposes the same as real risk. Cochrane advances another
argument: that the risks are real, but narrowly held - thus a few
investors are capturing a risk premium at a cheap price.
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